How Likely That Trump's Gaza Proposal Will Succeed?

Hamas's partial endorsement toward the US president's Gaza ceasefire deal last Friday has been met with worldwide approval representing the nearest Israel and Hamas have got in two years to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.

How Close Is a Deal?

Hamas's qualified backing of the US proposal is the closest negotiators have got in recent months to a comprehensive end of the conflict inside the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, they remain far off from a settlement.

Trump's multi-point proposal to conclude the war requires that Hamas free every captive in three days, surrender ruling power to a transnational body headed by the US president, and disarm. As compensation, Israel would step-by-step withdraw its forces from Gaza and release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

This agreement would also bring an increase of humanitarian aid into Gaza, parts of which are experiencing starvation, and reconstruction funds to Gaza, which has been nearly completely destroyed.

The organization only agreed to three points: the freeing of every captive, the surrendering of power and the pullout of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The group said the rest of the deal must be negotiated alongside other Palestinian parties, since it forms a component of a “collective national stance”.

Effectively, this means Hamas wants additional talks regarding the more difficult aspects of the US plan, specifically the demand that it disarms, and a clear schedule regarding Israeli troop pullout.

Where and When Will Talks Happen?

Delegates have flown to Cairo to finalize specifics to bridge the divide between Israel and Hamas.

The talks begin tomorrow and are expected to bring results within a few days, regardless of the outcome.

Trump shared a picture of a map of Gaza on Saturday night depicting the line to which Israeli troops should withdraw and said if the group consents to it, that the ceasefire would start right away. Donald Trump is anxious to conclude the war as it approaches its second anniversary and before the Nobel prize committee announces who receives the peace prize in October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned obsession for him.

Benjamin Netanyahu announced a deal to secure the return of Israeli hostages home would ideally happen soon.

What Gaps Remain?

Both Hamas and Israel have been cautious their positions heading into negotiations.

Hamas has repeatedly declined to give up its weapons during previous talks. It has provided no word on if its position has changed on this, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with qualifications. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there exists little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to pin Hamas down through firm wording in any plan moving forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it agreed to surrendering authority in Gaza to a technocratic administration, as specified in the US proposal. But, in its announcement, Hamas clarified it would agree to a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body proposed by Trump in its plan.

Israel has also sought to maintain the matter of its troop withdrawal vague. Just hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in the US capital last week, the prime minister published a video reassuring Israelis that soldiers would remain across much of Gaza.

On Saturday night, the Israeli prime minister reiterated that forces would remain inside Gaza, saying that hostages would be released as the Israel Defense Forces would stay within Gaza's interior.

Netanyahu’s position seemingly stands against the stipulation in the US proposal that Israeli forces completely pull out from the territory. The group will demand guarantees that Israel will completely leave and that should the group gives up its arms, Israeli forces will not return to the strip.

Negotiators must bridge these gaps, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from Hamas. They must also show to the faction that the Israeli government will genuinely pull out from the territory and that there will be global assurances that will force the Israeli state to comply with the conditions of the deal.

The disagreements could be reconciled, and the United States will certainly pressure the two sides to reach an agreement. However, negotiations have come near to a deal previously suddenly collapsing several times in the past two years, making both sides wary of declaring victory prior to a formal agreement.

Keith Chapman
Keith Chapman

A passionate gaming enthusiast and writer, sharing insights on online casinos and slot strategies.