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In his 2024 presidential run, Donald Trump pledged to eschew expensive and frequently catastrophic foreign wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This commitment was a central component of his isolationist “America first” policy. Yet soon after his inauguration, American military units initiated airstrikes in Yemen and Iran. Turning southward, the president threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Now, US defense officials is preparing for possible strikes against alleged “terrorist” drug cartels within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Most immediate concern is a possible fresh administration effort to enforce regime change in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Escalating Strains

Nicolás Maduro, the nation's socialist strongman president, claims that this effort is already begun. He says that Washington is waging an “undeclared war” on his nation after multiple deadly strikes against Venezuelan ships in the high seas. Trump last week notified Congress that America is engaged in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. He states, without providing evidence, that the attacked vessels were carrying drugs bound for the US – and that Maduro bears responsibility. The administration has placed a $50m bounty for Maduro’s head.

Regional nations are anxiously watching a significant American armed forces buildup near Venezuela, including warships, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful resources are not much use for drug interdiction. However they might be used for attack, or else to support commando operations and bombing runs. Recently, Venezuela alleged the US of an “illegal incursion” by several F-35s. Maduro states he is preparing emergency powers to “protect our people” if Venezuela is attacked from the American empire.

Questioning the Reasons Behind the Moves

What is Trump up to? Narcotics trafficking is a major problem – but taking lives arbitrarily in international waters, while common and difficult to prosecute, remains against international law. Moreover, United Nations reports state most of illegal drugs reaching the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked through Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, enjoys playing the strong leader. He is now trying to deport Venezuelan immigrants, many of whom originally fled to the US to escape economic measures he previously enforced. Experts propose he desires Venezuela’s abundant energy and mineral resources.

It’s true that the president and John Bolton, attempted to replace Maduro back in 2019 in what Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, the president's recent electoral win was broadly condemned as fraudulent. If allowed to vote freely, the people would likely remove him. Furthermore, clashing ideologies play a role, too. The leader, unworthy successor to Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution, is offensive to the president's imperial idea of a US-dominated western hemisphere, where the historic policy is revived and free-market economics operates unchecked.

Lack of Coherent Planning

However given his hapless missteps on other major international matters, the most likely explanation for Trump’s behavior is that, as usual, he lacks understanding about his actions – regarding Caracas or Latin America overall. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, makes impetuous decisions, stokes fear of foreigners and forms policies on whether he approves of foreign counterparts. In 2019, when the Venezuelan leader on the ropes, Trump blinked. Now, full-scale military intervention in the country remains unlikely. More probable is a heightened pressure campaign involving destabilisation, penalties, maritime strikes, and aerial and special forces operations.

Instead of undermining and isolating Maduro's government, Trump could bring about the exact opposite. Maduro is already exploiting the situation to assume authoritarian emergency authority and mobilize public opinion behind patriotic calls for unity. The president's bullying of additional left-leaning regional nations – such as Colombia – and overconfident support for conservative populists in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring a regional backlash, as well. The majority of nations detest the thought of a return to the past era of American interference in Washington’s “back yard”.

Regional Backlash and Diplomatic Setbacks

Trump’s attempt to use punitive tariffs and restrictions to pressure Brazil to granting amnesty to its former conservative leader Jair Bolsonaro backfired dramatically recently. Massive protests took to the streets of Brazilian urban centers to defend what they perceived as an assault on national independence and rule of law. Public support of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. “We are not, and will never become, anyone’s colony,” he declared. Lula told the US president, in effect, to get lost. Then, at their meeting at the UN summit, Trump backed off and was conciliatory.

The view of a great leap backwards in inter-American ties increases inevitably. “His administration views the region mainly as a security threat, linking it to narcotics trade, criminal networks and incoming migration,” an analyst cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach has become essentially negative, favoring unilateral action and control instead of cooperation,” she added, noting: “The region is viewed less as an equal partner and rather as a zone of control to be controlled according to American goals.”

Hawkish Advisers and Rising Rhetoric

Trump’s hardline aides are part of the issue: notably Stephen Miller, White House top aide, and Marco Rubio, a former Republican senator from Florida serving as secretary of state and security advisor. For Rubio, a long-standing opponent of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader remains a target. Justifying the naval strikes, he declared: Seizures are ineffective. The solution is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” Coming from the top US diplomat, these are strong words.

Long-term Consequences

The president's attempts to reprise the position of regional neighbourhood policeman, copying former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are backward-looking, dangerous and counterproductive. In the future, the big winner will probably be Beijing, a growingly powerful player, economic partner and leading member of the international bloc of nations. As the US burns its bridges across the world, the administration is helping China great again.